On the 23rd June the UK will vote on whether to remain in or leave the European Union. There are strong views on both sides as well as a significant proportion of Brits still apparently undecided.
The leave and remain campaigns have come under fire for scaremongering and have been heavily criticised for not providing clear facts and information. Whatever your political views the polls are showing the result is likely to be close. So what will be the impact for contractors?
There has been a great deal of uncertainty in the build up to the referendum. The pound has weakened against the euro and generally uncertainty is bad for business but perhaps surprisingly the jobs market seems to have remained relatively unaffected (although even that depends on who you listen to!)
We’d all love to know, before we take to the polling stations, what the impact of a leave or remain vote would mean for us but the difficulty is it is impossible to predict.
If the UK votes to leave the uncertainty is likely to continue as negotiations take place with Europe. The impact of the changes will take time to unfold.
If sterling falls, as many economists have predicted will happen, then recruiting from Europe and further afield to fill skills shortage gaps in the UK could prove problematic as working in the UK is likely to be less appealing. In certain areas such as construction, engineering and IT this is a serious concern.
An exit is likely to result in changes to freedom of movement; this could exacerbate the skills shortages. Eligibility issues and the need for work permits will increase administration for employers as well as for European contractors seeking work in the UK. The fluidity of the workforce is often cited as key to economic growth. However this can also be seen as an opportunity. Leaving could lead to more opportunities for UK citizens and less competition in the jobs market. It could also be an opportunity to create a points based entry system similar to the one operated by Australia.
This would mean that the UK has more control over the workers coming in to the country.
British contractors who regularly work in the EU are also likely to feel the impact of an exit. Where there is demand for certain skills and workers no doubt a solution will be found but working in
Europe is likely to mean more red tape and bureaucracy for British contractors.
If Britain votes to remain most economic experts predict that in the short term business confidence will grow.
Many businesses have waded in to the debate; some are keen to escape the burden of EU regulation and feel that the opportunity to negotiate our own trade deals with other countries would be advantageous. Other businesses have backed the remain campaign and believe that an exit would cause an economic shock and have a negative impact on growth.
Whichever way you intend to vote it is going to be a close one. Whatever the result is on 23rd June it will take some time for the dust to settle and the full implications for contractors to become clear.
